Market Update for the Week of July 20th

INFLATION, ALL WE NEVER WANTED…! Or so the Go-Go’s song “Vacation – All I Ever Wanted” could have been re-written this week, as whispers and glimmers of future inflation as well as some positive economic news roiled the Bond market. Overall, home loan rates worsened by about .25% across the board. Inflation at both the wholesale and consumer level came in hotter than expected via the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports, the latter shown in the chart below. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by more than expected, and was the biggest increase in a year, mostly due to higher gasoline prices. However, a look back over the past year shows a drop in overall CPI of 1.4%…why is this? It was a year ago that a barrel of oil was $147, and today that barrel stands at $60, up from the $30 range seen earlier this year. But even when stripping out food and energy, the most recent Core CPI rose 0.2%, higher than the 0.1% anticipated – and year-over-year, Core CPI prices were up 1.7% after rising 1.8% in the 12 months ended in May. On the wholesale side, even excluding volatile food and fuel prices, Core PPI rose quite a bit more than anticipated as well. And remember, inflation is bad for Bonds and home loan rates. If this trend continues, it could have a big impact on rates later this year.

In other news, second quarter earnings season continued, including some highlights from the financial sector. Several companies reported strong earnings, including tech bellwether Intel; JP Morgan Chase, who reported a 36% jump in profits for the second quarter; and Goldman Sachs, reporting blowout earnings. Although some of the positive headlines helped Stocks, at the expense of Bonds and therefore home loan rates, overall the week’s earnings reports indicated the economic climate is still difficult.And this difficulty was seen on the retail front – and even though Retail Sales rose slightly higher than expectations, overall department stores and restaurants still showed weak results, signaling that consumers remain hesitant to spend discretionary dollars.

Forecast for the Week
It’s a quiet week ahead when it comes to scheduled economic reports, but that doesn’t mean the volatility will quiet down. Keep a look out on Thursday for the Existing Home Sales Report for a read on the housing market. Last week showed a decent Housing Starts number, so it will be interesting to see if Existing Home Sales shows some good news for the Housing Market.Also on Thursday, another Initial Jobless Claims report will be released. Last week, first time claims for unemployment benefits dropped by 47,000 to the lowest level since January. However, the reading is somewhat distorted by shifts in the timing of auto plant shutdowns. Usually plants would shut down in July, meaning last week’s unemployment claims number would usually have been higher, but the shutdown process was accelerated due to the bankruptcies of GM and Chrysler. Therefore, the seasonal adjustment makes this number look rosier than it really is.In addition, earnings season continues with important reports from Legg Mason, Coca Cola, Dupont, Apple, Wells Fargo, Pepsi, eBay, and Xerox among others…and if these reports are good, Stocks could continue to improve, at the expense of Bonds and home loan rates.